CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-08-18T11:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-08-18T11:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21261/-1
CME Note: The CME has a separate shock that is wider than the bulk of the CME. The bulk is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2. The shock is wider and more faint. There is a visible EUV wave along the SE of the source location as seen in SDO/AIA 193, moving/opening field lines are visible in SDO/AIA 193 and 171. Filament material is seen ejecting from the source location in SDO/AIA 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195. The eruption begins around 10:10Z with a flare as the potential trigger. The arrival is characterized by a rapid increase in solar wind density, magnetic field intensity, temperature, and speed with some component rotations present in the magnetic field after a period of very little to no rotation present in the magnetic field starting around 2022-08-20T17:24Z. These arrival signatures may be that of an ICME sheath that is followed by a flux rope beginning 2022-08-21T03:55Z but may also include more than one ICME arrival given the complexity of the solar wind signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-20T17:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-21T01:42Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1076.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021] u_r = 629.868 Acceleration: 0.303183 Duration in seconds: 225720.46 Duration in days: 2.6125053 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 0.30 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 698.3 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 21/08/2022 Time: 01:42 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 17.23 hour(s)
Difference: -8.30 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2022-08-20T00:10Z
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